I was on my way to heating up my dumplings for lunch today when I realized that someone had shut the door to the kitchen in Mulholland Lounge, in spite of the large sign that says "DO NOT CLOSE DOOR TO KITCHEN." There is a code lock on the door with the numbers 1 through 5 on it, and out of sheer luck, I happened to punch in 1-3-5, and the door opened.
Had I known that the combination was three numbers long, there would have been a 1/125 chance that I correctly guessed the sequence on my first try. But what are the chances that the lock required three numbers AND that the three numbers were the ones I guessed on my first try? The answer to that question requires a mathematical model that I am not willing or able to create.
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